Treasury Secretary Howard Lutnick insists the U.S. economy is on solid footing despite concerns from Wall Street that a recession is in the cards.
“Absolutely not,” he said on a Sunday edition of Meet the Press when asked if Americans should prepare for a downturn.
“There’s going to be no recession in America,” he continued. “It’s like the same people who thought Donald Trump wasn’t a winner a year ago. Donald Trump is a winner. He’s going to win for the American people.”
A recession is two consecutive quarters of economic contraction, caused by imbalances from external or internal factors, or combination of both.
This argument contradicts comments made by the President earlier, who didn’t rule out a recession, calling it part of a transition.
Lutnick argued that Trump’s tariff strategy will force other countries to lower their trade barriers, unleashing American growth and driving $1.3 trillion in new investment.
“We’re going to unleash America out to the world,” he said in response to warnings from JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs about a tariff-induced recession. “You are going to see over the next two years the greatest set of growth coming from America.”
While Lutnick acknowledged that tariffs could make foreign goods more expensive, he framed them as part of a broader effort to cut the deficit and lower borrowing costs.
“When you balance the budget… you drive interest rates down 150 basis points. Mortgages come smashing down. The cost of your home will come smashing down,” he said.
Crypto traders, however, don’t seem to have the same optimism.
Bitcoin (BTC) fell 7% on Sunday, dropping to $80,000 and nearing its 2025 low of $78,000.
Ether (ETH), Solana (SOL), and XRP (XRP) followed, while meme coins like Dogecoin (DOGE) and Cardano (ADA) tumbled nearly 12%.
On Polymarket, bettors are increasingly bracing for a slowdown, although the chances of one occurring remain slim.
A contract asking about the probability of a U.S. recession in 2025 has seen the Yes odds jump to 41%, a 16% increase in recent weeks.
Meanwhile, the latest U.S. jobs report showed 151,000 jobs added in February, CoinDesk recently reported, roughly in line with expectations, although the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.1% and January’s job gains were revised lower.
However, layoffs in the public sector as part of the White House’s DOGE efforts may push these numbers up next quarter.
While labor market resilience has kept recession calls at bay, signs of slowing growth are emerging, with the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model forecasting a negative 2.8% Q1 growth rate.
However, another contract gives just 3% chance of a recession happening before May. The first quarter ends March 31.