This is a daily analysis by CoinDesk analyst and Chartered Market Technician Omkar Godbole.
Bitcoin (BTC) remains susceptible to further downside, having lost over 7% since hitting record highs above $124,000 on Thursday.
Bullish momentum fading
The weekly chart (candlestick format) shows that BTC’s ongoing decline follows repeated bull failure to secure a foothold above $122,056, the Fibonacci golden ratio. It also marked the inability to keep gains above the significant long-term resistance trendline that connects the bull market highs of 2017 and 2021.
Additionally, the weekly stochastic oscillator has rolled over from the overbought zone above 80, signaling a potential correction ahead.
Daily chart
On the daily chart, BTC’s latest candle has broken below the bullish trendline extending from April lows, following Friday’s bearish outside-day candle that signaled a potential shift toward seller dominance.
Together, these technical signals indicate an increasing downside risk for BTC in the near term, with a potential retest of $11,982, the point from which the market turned higher on Aug. 3. A violation of this level would shift focus tothe 200-day simple moving average at around $100,000.
A potential reversal higher to above $118,600 (Sunday’s high) during the day ahead would weaken the bear case.
- Resistance: $120,000, $122,056, $124,429.
- Support: $111,982, $105,295 (the 31.8% Fib retracement of April-August rally), $100,000.