Traders are betting big on bitcoin (BTC) and ether (ETH) as the BTC rally rages on, and observers downplay Tuesday’s U.S. inflation data as a potential barrier for the bull.
BTC, the leading cryptocurrency by market value, rose to record highs above $121,000 during Monday’s Asian trading hours, representing a 2.7% gain on a 24-hour basis. The new high took the year-to-date gain to nearly 30%, with prices up 13% this month alone, according to CoinDesk data.
Ether followed suit, rising 3% to near $3,050, and other major coins such as XRP (XRP), Dogecoin (DOGE), BNB (BNB), and Solana’s SOL (SOL)boasted 3% to 5% gains.
Activity on the leading decentralized options platform Derive backed the bullish price action, with significant open interest concentrated in the $130,000 call option.
“Almost 20% of the open interest on Derive’s Sept 26 expiry for BTC is concentrated at the $130K call, suggesting traders expect gradual but persistent price rises over the next three months,” Nick Forster, founder at Derive, said.
In ETH’s case, 45% of ETH’s open interest on the July 18 expiry is concentrated in the $3,400 strike, with that one strike making up 16% of ETH weekend volume, Forester explained, calling that a sign of traders expecting a breakout in the second-largest cryptocurrency.
“While volatility remains moderate compared to 2020-21, directional conviction is growing, especially in ETH. We’re watching closely for confirmation of this trend over the coming week,” Forster noted.
Options listed on centralized giant Deribit painted a similar bullish picture for bitcoin and ether, with calls or bullish bets trading pricier than puts across tenors.
Inflation a non-event
The main event of this week’s macro calendar is the U.S. consumer price index (CPI) inflation data due Tuesday. According to FactSet, the June CPI is forecast to have risen 0.23% on the month, amounting to a 2.6% annualized growth, up from May’s 2.4%. The annualized core CPI, which excludes the volatile food and energy component, likely rose 3%.
Both traditional and crypto market investors have closely watched it for the past four years, as it heavily influences the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decisions.
However, this time, the crypto market may not be impacted, according to the founders of the newsletter service LondonCryptoClub. They believe fiscal profligacy, a rising global money supply, and a soft U.S. dollar are driving the ongoing bull market and not the Fed rate cuts story.
“We don’t think it matters. We’re still in a ‘Goldilocks’ macro environment with a slowing, not collapsing US economy and whilst inflation remains a little sticky, it’s not accelerating to a point that would change the direction of travel at the Fed from rate cuts to hikes. Meanwhile, the weaker dollar continues to feed into easy financial conditions and is helping facilitate the expansion in global money supply,” the founders told CoinDesk.
They added that with the Trump administration doing a complete 180 on deficit reduction, we are back running the fiscal dominance playbook of the Biden era.”
Moreover, President Donald Trump’s big beautiful tax bill, which recently passed in Congress, is projected to add over $3 trillion to the already record-high national debt over time.
“So the drivers for risk and bitcoin are currently not dominated by expectations for Fed rate cuts, but this fiscal dominance story, rising global money supply, alongside a softer dollar. Therefore, Sensitivity to the Fed and, by extension, the CPI data is much reduced,” the founders told CoinDesk.
Crypto week and corporate adoption
This week, dubbed as the ‘Crypto Week’ by the Trump administration, could see the House of Representatives debate several crypto bills, including the Genius Act, Clarity Act, and the Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act.
Positive developments on these fronts are likely to insulate bitcoin and the wider crypto market from macro developments. The relentless corporate adoption of bitcoin also helps.
“The bitcoin market is moving quite strongly due to demand from my corporate treasuries and associated speculation. In addition, this week has been dubbed ‘crypto week’ by the Trump administration. I expect positive news to come from this. I think the inflation numbers, so long as they are somewhere in the range of normal, will have little impact on bitcoin,” Alexander Blume, CEO at the SEC-registered investment adviser Two Prime, told CoinDesk.
“One, the bitcoin market is moving independently of the broader economy. Two, the increasing perception of the FED as politicized blunts the impact these numbers have on rate cuts anyway,” Blume added.
Read more: Bitcoin Hits New All-Time High Above $120K as U.S. Inflation Data Looms