As East Asia prepares to shut down for the Lunar New Year holiday and looks towards the Year of the Snake, it’s time to look back at bitcoin (BTC) and the CoinDesk 20 (CD20)’s performance during the Year of the Dragon.
Hong Kong-based brokerage CLSA has an annual tradition of forecasting the market’s performance in the coming year based on the lunar cycle, and with a few minor tweaks, it’s as applicable to crypto as it is to traditional markets.
Looking back at last year, the market sorcerers were right on the money. Bitcoin is up 137%, while the CoinDesk 20 (CD20), an index tracking the largest digital assets, is up 128% in the last year. This crypto rally is largely thanks to the election of U.S. President Donald Trump last November, which lined up with stargazers’ predictions of volatility, then a rally, in the second half of the year.
The only area where market forecasters missed the mark last year was ether’s (ETH) performance. Citing the then-anticipated ether exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and the Dencun upgrade to the Ethereum protocol, analysts hoped the dragon energy would ignite the market’s second largest digital asset.
But that failed to materialize, and ETH is only up 35% over the last year as it struggled to keep up to the market’s gains.
Now, on to the Year of the Snake. CLSA says the market is bound for some unpredictable twists as assets – both traditional and crypto – make their way through the lunar months.
The year begins with cautious optimism, as liquidity-driven modest gains mirror the Rough Green Snake climbing into trees for a vantage point.
However, youthful volatility, akin to the Garter Snake testing its limits, brings temporary falls in early spring. By mid-year, the fiery energy of the Brown Tree Snake suggests a potential surge, lifting markets to heights not seen in a long time.
Summer stagnates, according to the stars, autumn brings minor setbacks, but the year ends with renewed momentum and a steady rise, highlighting crypto’s resilience and adaptability in a volatile market.
Of course, CLSA also reminds readers to seek professional advice, not the guidance of the stars, before investing, and their market predictions based on heavenly guidance don’t count as a research report.