Bitcoin (BTC) surged past $124,000, setting its fourth all-time high of 2025.
On-chain data from Glassnode suggests this could mark the early stages of a continued bull market.
A key metric underpinning this view is the realized price, which measures the total value of all bitcoins at the price they were last moved on-chain, divided by the number of coins in circulation. This metric at $51,888 has now climbed above bitcoin’s 200-week moving average (200WMA), a long-term trendline often seen as a dividing line between bear and bull markets.
History shows that when the realized price moves above the 200WMA and continues higher, as it did in the 2017 and 2021 cycles, the uptrend is sustained for a longer time. The 200WMA currently stands at $51,344, acting as a long-term support level that has historically defined the floor during bear markets.
This level has only been breached during periods of extreme market stress. The most recent example came at the end of the 2022 bear market, when bitcoin fell sharply amid the FTX collapse. The realized price dropped below the 200WMA in June 2022 and remained there for nearly three years before reclaiming it in 2025.
Breaking back above the 200WMA is significant, as it indicates renewed investor confidence and a shift in market structure.
If historical patterns hold, this technical development could be the precursor to a sustained rally. With macroeconomic conditions and institutional interest aligning, Bitcoin’s recent price action may be the opening chapter of its next major growth phase.
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