A fog of uncertainty continues to hang over global markets as crypto assets trade sideways, ahead of this week’s U.S. Federal Reserve meeting.
While equities briefly found their footing on Monday, crypto markets remained defensive after Friday’s $1.2 billion futures liquidation, which shook out overleveraged longs and sent altcoins sharply lower over the weekend.
Bitcoin rose above $108,000 in the U.S. morning session on Monday, then slid to as low as $106,500 due to profit-taking. However, buying activity later moved prices above $107,000 in the Asian morning hours on Tuesday.
BTC ETFs saw $1.4 billion in net inflows over the past week, reaffirming the role of spot products as price shock absorbers even during broader pullbacks.
Meanwhile, ether (ETH) rose 1.5% over 24 hours to $2,609, still trailing Bitcoin’s ETF-led strength. Solana’s SOL and Tron’s TRX remained firm, up 1.5% and 2.1% respectively, though the broader tone remains cautious among traders.
Gold and oil, both traditional safe-havens during geopolitical crises, surged in early trading after U.S. President Donald Trump unexpectedly called for the evacuation of Tehran in a statement from the G7 summit. That sparked a mini-rush into defensive assets.
Bitcoin, however, lagged the move in a familiar pattern, according to analysts.
“Bitcoin often shows a delayed reaction to macro trends, so while gold and oil are surging on geopolitical and inflationary pressures, BTC may take time to catch up,” said Eugene Cheung, Chief Commercial Officer at OSL, in a note to CoinDesk.
“However, if risk sentiment shifts and investors look for alternative stores of value, Bitcoin could see renewed momentum in the coming weeks if this week’s Fed meeting comes in as expected for investors.”
That expectation is now center stage. Markets are overwhelmingly pricing in a hold from the Fed, but attention will be focused on the tone and language of Chair Powell’s comments, particularly regarding inflation and tariffs.
“We’re expecting the Fed to hold rates steady this week as they wait to see how tariffs will affect the economy,” said Jeff Mei, COO at BTSE, in a Telegram message. “Inflation is easing and jobs are holding strong, so there’s no rush to cut or raise just yet. They’ll likely wait for more data before making any big moves later this year.”
Others see a subtle shift emerging, opining that a dovish pivot may not be announced outright, but the seeds could be planted.
“The Fed will likely see some dovish risk on the margin,” said Augustine Fan, Head of Insights at SignalPlus.
“The market will see whether the committee will use the recent string in downside inflation misses and weaker jobless claims to justify a more pronounced dovish pivot. We don’t expect a whole lot out of the meeting, and the near-term focus will remain on the Iran-Israel situation,” Fan said.