Human beings are emotional, and that’s especially so in crypto markets. Round numbers are idolized much more than in traditional finance, and investors and traders are susceptible to panic-selling if price gains stall near a number with several zeros at the end.
At the same time, some traders look to front-run the exodus, stacking order books such that it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.
Take, for example, bitcoin (BTC), which has again drawn up short at the so-called psychological $100,000 sell wall. While earlier analysis has pointed at profit-taking, capitulation from short-term holders and just not enough demand to take bitcoin higher, it’s interesting — possibly even useful —to know if there’s a recurring pattern.
An analysis of historical price movements based on data from Glassnode shows it usually takes multiple attempts to breach these psychological barriers. The analysis looked at trading patterns when the bitcoin price came within 2% of a multiple of $10,000.
Bitcoin closed above that level for the first time back in December 2017. After that bubble burst, BTC endured a bear market until 2020 as it struggled to reclaim the $10,000 price level. It closed within 2% of the barrier 21 times before it conclusively broke through. An earlier analysis shows that was one of bitcoin’s longest trading periods within a specific price range.
Subsequent $10,000 increments each had the price closing within 2% between 15 and 30 times before climbing above the level. That was consistent all the way through $70,000.
The pattern unravels after President-elect Donald Trumps’ election victory in November. Bitcoin shot though $80,000 and tested $90,000 only three times before the barrier crumbled.
Which leaves $100,000 in unknown territory. BTC has already closed twice within 2% of that level: Nov. 21 and Nov. 22. Are we about to revert to the long-term pattern of some 20 attempts, or will it be third time’s a charm?
